A half century ago the County’s Office of Emergency Preparedness filed an official report declaring that within 11 minutes of a catastrophic failure of Hodges Dam, a 22 foot highwall of raging water will blast through the gorge into Osuna Valley like a tsunami-caused tidal wave and take every structure and living thing in its path to the Pacific Ocean at Del Mar.
Need I really say more? Evacuation to high ground will be impossible. Everything from the Lemon Twist stand on Del Dios to coastal Del Mar homes would be swept out to sea. Silvergate, the proposed super high density housing project for the elderly and infirm would likely suffer major damage if not total destruction.
Powder Kegs and Hollow Promises
The Hodges Dam, built with early 1900’s engineering and materials, has long been riddled with huge cracks and is dangerous. It should be no surprise that in our current litigious world of gigantic judgements bankrupting public utilities, the regional water authorities have finally declared the century-old Hodges Dam to be unsafe, dropping the water level dramatically as a last gasp precaution. This is a powder keg promising bankruptcy of the largest of 18 cities in this County. San Diego, which can’t afford to fix potholes, has made a hollow promise of a new dam to be constructed, perhaps completed in the mid-2030’s period. Really?
The City of San Diego’s Geology Element of their General Plan, long ago identified this lower coastal reach of the San Dieguito River valley to be subject to liquefaction, earthquake prone, and warned municipal authorities not to grant high human density use permits in this floodplain path, such as for schools, churches or multifamily dense housing.
Pied Piper Promotions and Claims
Now a Pied Piper promoter of huge elderly housing projects, Silvergate owner’s David Petree, is enticing the public and a private HOA, with an ad campaign, private polling and renditions of a beautiful lifestyle, entertaining Staff, Art Jury and Board consideration of a giant Walmart-like, high density elderly housing project in the catastrophic flood pathway. The promoter claims no General Plan Amendment is required. When in fact, the County would require a GPA, Rezone, and Major Use Permit, and EIR’s.
In the County process, the Army Corps of Engineers will step in as this is a navigable waterway, and all the 404 statutes apply. The FEMA map would have to be amended which itself would take years. The County must comply with State CEQA, EPA, and waterways laws, all far more vital factors in law, like evacuation safety, impact to environmentally constrained land, damage to natural resources, hydrology, traffic, sewer, fire, lighting, community character, public safety, welfare and health. The only powers of an HOA are aesthetics and contract compliance with a 100-year-old Covenant, which when written in the 1920’s never remotely contemplated anything in this flood-prone valley other than horse farms or riding academies.
Most Egregious Environmental Assault
In 1980 Lake Val Sereno with an earthen dam failed along Escondido Creek. The early 1980’s saw 30-year floods per the County Flood Control District. The subregion around El Apajo in the Osuna Valley was submerged in up to four feet of water due to sheet flow, lacking drainage infrastructure, triggered by a breach of the riverbanks at Chino Farms and abrupt and permanent change of the river pathway. Both bridges were closed with damaged abutments. Residents south of those bridges were landlocked. It took years and millions of dollars to restore these bridges.
The 28+ acre “Silvergate” development proposal is on a battleground site of several densification project wars we citizens fought over past decades. Not NIMBYism, this property is zoned for agriculture or about seven to 10 single-family residences, without factoring flood constraints, including sheet flow. This “spot zone” attempt at urban densification, more than a mile from any urban village, is by far the most egregious, dense and intense assault on rural community character and on environmentally constrained land. It poses imminent evacuation danger to the intended elderly and ill occupants. Timely evacuation would be impossible.
The RSFA Board needs to stop this runaway train now before we have an inland tsunami.
Mr. Frowiss is a 50-year resident of Rancho Santa Fe, and San Diego native. He has been engaged in volunteer and elected government services regarding growth management, general plans, maps, discretionary permits, and preserving rural community character. He has also headed two HOA’s in the community, several County task forces and chaired the San Dieguito Planning Group.