Ranch Realty Check: Ugly Flips Are Dragging Our Town Down

It’s been a while since our last Ranch Realty Check-in, and as I predicted back in March, interest rates have teetered between 6.5% and a whopping 7%. Hopefully, our local RSF residents’ pockets will deepen, otherwise, our community will become priced out. It is undoubtedly different from what ol’ Lillian Rice had in mind for this great community (politics aside).

The real estate forecast looked bleak until a couple of days ago when rates went down 23 basis points from the previous week. This is the lowest rate since May 2023. Now, before we get too excited and over-exaggerate by saying rates have “plummeted,” let’s take a step back and examine our local market.

Quality And Quantity

“Sitting ducks” is the term I’d use for anything over $6 million. If it’s not the time of year, it’s the interest rates; if it’s not the rates, it’s the time of year. I hear excuse after excuse from my colleagues about why homes aren’t selling in RSF.

But is anyone talking about the quality of homes or lack thereof? The Ranch flips are getting worse and worse. Just last week, I saw two homes on caravan that were once gorgeous old-school estates that some G-Wag-driving developer bought for a song and slapped on a coat of white and gray paint, chucked some builder-grade finishes in, and listed it for $10M large. As the saying goes, you can put lipstick on a pig, but it’s still a pig. Someone will surely pick it up at a certain price at some point, because every home is the right home for the right buyer at the right price. But this brings me to a bigger question: Are these flips hurting our RSF market?

Mass Produced Big Boxes

With currently 88 homes in the Covenant on the market, we are hardly oversaturated. But why do we have such little movement? Homes are taking anywhere from 60-120 days to sell. Interest rates aren’t the only factor. The Ranch needs more quality new builds and flips.

I find myself stepping into several newly built homes that all look the same. I thought (prayed) Rancho was avoiding the ticky-tacky look — I was wrong. The Art Jury must have found a way to streamline a few developers’ designs, which are now being mass produced in the Ranch: Big rectangle boxes, large open entry with sliding doors, and transom windows. Like Meryl Streep as Anna Wintour deadpans about florals for spring: “Groundbreaking.”

Money Grabs

Now, I don’t want it to seem like I’m bashing every flip or new piece of construction. I have seen and sold some beautiful, thoughtfully constructed or restored homes in RSF. I love this community and the integrity of our architecture. It’s why I became a real estate agent and chose to work in the Ranch. Quality will always sell, but the bad flips, or as I like to call them, “money grabs,” are hanging on the market and dragging the whole town down. A $5.9 million dollar home with GE appliances and “luxury” vinyl plank floors? Sorry, I don’t think so!

With golf course memberships at all-time 100G highs, bad flips, look-like new builds, and Rowe experiencing quite a bit of admin flux, working with an agent who understands all the community’s nuances is more important than ever; who you work with matters. The Ranch is devolving into a Netflix episode of Selling Sunset — imposter agents peddling subpar flips, hoping to make a quick, dirty dollar.

Slow But Slight Uptick

And don’t get me started on the California real estate agent commission “change” taking effect this month, because nothing has really changed. Your seller’s agent cannot market any commission to the buyer’s agent, but the buyer’s agent can write the commission they would like in the contract and make that a part of the buyer’s offer, furthering the negotiation process.

While things are moving slowly in the Ranch, I predict a slight uptick in sales in the fall. I know a few homes coming to the market in September and October that are going to give these developers and flippers a run for their money. For the sake of all of us, let’s pray.